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Oxford Economics

Besides NGFS, other entities have started to develop their own climate scenarios. Oxford Economics, one of the global leaders in forecasting and quantitative economic analyses, offers climate scenarios with characteristics complementing the NGFS scenarios (see Figure; Oxford Economics, 2023). Accordingly, we add this alternative set of scenarios to our models to increase their robustness, avoid biases, and become less dependent on one scenario provider.


Oxford Economics scenarios positioned according to their level of
physical (x-axis) and transition risks (y-axis; Samp, 2023)

Table: Comparisons between Oxford Economics’ and NGFS' scenarios


Oxford Economics

Orderly transition scenarios

Net Zero 2050

“Net Zero”


“Net Zero Transformation”

More optimistic, assuming that the clean transition to net zero can prevent market failures.

Below 2°C

“Sustainable Development”

Equivalent, envisioning that the policy burden will primarily affect advanced economies, countries with net zero pledges, and nations historically responsible for most global emissions.

Disorderly transition scenario

Delayed Transition

“Delayed Transition”


Insufficient scenario

Fragmented World


No transition scenarios




Current Policies

“Climate Catastrophe”

More pessimistic, assuming that governments fail to meet their policy pledges, resulting in higher emissions and a negatively affected gross domestic product (GDP; slow and partly negative development).


“Energy Disorder”

Assuming that countries would move their focus on energy security, more nations became reliant on fossil fuels available within their own borders and hence, the GHG concentration increased.


Oxford Economics (2023). Global climate service report. Q3 2023. [not publicly available]

Samp, A. (2023, February 27). Forecasting the impacts of climate change is essential to meet the net zero agenda. Oxford Economics.

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