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2.3.2 Comparison with S&P default rates

Table: Comparison of the default probability for corporate and project entities with S&P default rates (2010 to 2020)

Infrastructure Type

S&P 12M Default Rate Range

Cox Ph model Average Probability of Default for 12M Range

Corporate Ex Utilities

0% to 1.3%

1.6% to 3.8%

Proiect Ex Utilities

0% to 1.0%

1.9% to 2.9%

Utilities

0% to 2.5%

0.5% to 2.1%

The above table shows that the probability of default is aligned with the actual default rates from the S&P 2022 study (Kraemer et al., 2022), suggesting that the model or approach used to calculate PD for corporate and project entities is consistent with the observed trends in the data. This indicates that the PD values calculated are reliable and representative of the actual risk profile, as observed in the study.

Additionally, the overall trend and range of the PD and actual default rates appear to match, suggesting that there is a good correlation between the calculated probabilities of default and the actual historical default rates. This is a positive indication for the model or approach used, as it demonstrates a strong alignment with empirical data from a reputable source such as S&P.


Kraemer, N.W., Gurwitz, Z.R., & Richhariya, N.M. (2022). Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2022 Annual Infrastructure Default and Rating Transition Study. S&P Global. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/231115-default-transition-and-recovery-2022-annual-infrastructure-default-and-rating-transition-study-12852228

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